Sabalenka’s semifinal score shows how efficiently she handled the immediate assignment. The WTA’s match statistics list seven aces, three converted break points from eight chances and no service breaks conceded. Pegula had one break-point opportunity; Sabalenka saved it.
That performance followed a much tighter quarterfinal against Linda Noskova, which Sabalenka needed a deciding-set tiebreak to win. Rybakina also had to recover after dropping the opening set in both her quarterfinal and semifinal. Neither finalist has reached this stage without having to solve a difficult match.
Saturday also renews a rivalry that already decided a major this year. Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final. Sabalenka won their earlier Melbourne final in 2023, leaving their two previous Grand Slam title matches split.
Sabalenka leads their overall series 10–7, according to the WTA. That advantage offers context, not a prediction. Rybakina has already beaten her with a major trophy on the line this season, while Sabalenka brings two straight US Open titles back to the same court. The final will decide which of those recent successes carries further.
