His framework includes “greens in regulation plus one”: reaching a par-three green in two shots, a par-four green in three or a par-five green in four. He credits statistician Lou Stagner with that measure. It gives a player a way to judge whether a miss still leaves a reasonable route to bogey.
Kerr-Dineen then separates a ball in ordinary rough from one that demands a recovery shot. Trees, deep trouble and some fairway bunkers can cost a shot even when the ball stays in bounds. His advice is to identify the safer side of a hole and choose a club and target that give those obstacles less influence.
The same planning applies near a green. Identify an easier place to chip from before choosing the approach target. On the putting green, he recommends including longer lag putts in a warm-up to work on speed control.
An older Golf Digest lesson from Trent Wearner offers a related example on long par threes: use enough club to keep a natural tempo, then assess the most forgiving place to miss. That lesson was published in 2013; it supplies background rather than a new claim from this episode.
Both pieces make the next shot part of the decision. The useful question is whether a target leaves a playable miss, as well as whether a good shot can reach the flag.
